The fight against poliomyelitis through the history: past, present and hopes for the future. Albert Sabin's missing Nobel and his "gift to all the world's children".

Polio, or poliomyelitis, is a disabling and life-threatening disease caused by three poliovirus (PV) serotypes. The virus spreads from person to person and can infect a person's spinal cord, causing paralysis. In 1988, when the WHO registered 350,000 cases of poliomyelitis in the world and 70,000 which occurred in Africa alone, global poliomyelitis eradication was proposed by the World Health Organization to its member States. On 25 August 2020, while the world was waging war against the Coronavirus pandemic, a historic milestone was reached: Africa was officially declared polio-free. It is an important result obtained thanks to an intensive large-scale vaccination campaign. The road was far from smooth, nevertheless, according to the WHO, a great effort needs to be made in order to facilitate access to vaccination and to promote its implementation in those countries where coverage is low and vaccine hesitancy is high because the risk of the spread of poliomyelitis is still relevant. Eradication of the virus in Africa provides us with an excellent opportunity to commemorate the many scientists who contributed to achieving this epoch-making goal: first of all, Jonas Salk, who developed a killed-virus vaccine in 1952, and, especially, Albert Sabin, who in 1961 launched programs of mass immunisation with his oral vaccine against poliomyelitis.

Review of scientific evidence to support recommendations of the full-dose DTaP-IPV vaccination in pre-school age children in Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Two vaccine formulations are available to prevent diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, and poliomyelitis: the pediatric full-dose (DTaP-IPV) and the reduced dose formulation (dTap-IPV). Different immunization schedules are internationally recommended for the pre-school booster dose. AREAS COVERED: International and Italian recommendations, scientific evidence on immunogenicity and safety of DTaP/dTap vaccines to support the full dose as a pre-school booster and Italian vaccination coverage (VC) up to adolescence. EXPERT OPINION: The WHO recommends a '3+1' schedule with DTaP vaccine for primary immunization, followed by a pre-school booster with DTaP or dTap vaccine. In Italy, a '2+1' schedule, with no booster in the second year, and a pre-school booster dose are recommended with DTPa-IPV vaccines. Studies showed a non-inferior immunogenicity in dTap vaccinees in pre-school age; nevertheless, the antibody titers were usually greater in children vaccinated with DTaP, while lower frequencies of adverse events were recorded in children receiving dTap. Italian VCs for pre-school and adolescent boosters have not been satisfactory, which further reduced during the COVID-19 period. In Italy, the pre-school booster offers the last chance to receive a full dose of DTaP vaccine, thus, representing the most suitable intervention to provide lasting protection in children.

The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.

Use of oral polio vaccine and the incidence of COVID-19 in the world.

BACKGROUND: Several live attenuated vaccines were shown to provide temporary protection against a variety of infectious diseases through stimulation of the host innate immune system. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that countries using oral polio vaccine (OPV) have a lower cumulative number of cases diagnosed with COVID-19 per 100,000 population (CP100K) compared with those using only inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). METHODS: In an ecological study, the CP100K was compared between countries using OPV vs IPV. We used a random-effect meta-analysis technique to estimate the pooled mean for CP100K. We also used negative binomial regression with CP100K as the dependent variable and the human development index (HDI) and the type of vaccine used as independent variables. RESULTS: The pooled estimated mean CP100K was 4970 (95% CI 4030 to 5900) cases per 100,000 population for countries using IPV, significantly (p<0.001) higher than that for countries using OPV-1580 (1190 to 1960). Countries with higher HDI prefer to use IPV; those with lower HDI commonly use OPV. Both HDI and the type of vaccine were independent predictors of CP100K. Use of OPV compared to IPV could independently decrease the CP100K by an average of 30% at the mean HDI of 0.72. CONCLUSIONS: Countries using OPV have a lower incidence of COVID-19 compared to those using IPV. This might suggest that OPV may either prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection at individual level or slow down the transmission at the community level.

[Polio Environmental Surveillance and Its Application to SARS-CoV-2 Detection].

The polio eradication program, launched in 1988, has successfully decreased the number of poliomyelitis patients worldwide. However, in areas with immunization gaps where oral polio vaccine coverage has dropped, outbreaks of more virulent vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) have become a threat to public health. In Japan, inactivated polio vaccine replaced oral polio vaccine as the routine immunization in 2012. Polio environmental surveillance (ES) has been conducted nationwide since 2013 to efficiently monitor the wild type poliovirus or VDPV, which may be imported from overseas. ES may also be utilized to detect other viruses in stool samples. We propose a method of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection based on the polio ES network, and establish a procedure to detect fragments of SARS-CoV-2 genome in wastewater solids. Our findings suggest that polio ES can be used to simultaneously monitor SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in sewage waters.

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

Childhood vaccinations: Hidden impact of COVID-19 on children in Singapore.

Although the direct health impact of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on child health is low, there are indirect impacts across many aspects. We compare childhood vaccine uptake in three types of healthcare facilities in Singapore - public primary care clinics, a hospital paediatric unit, and private paediatrician clinics - from January to April 2020, to baseline, and calculate the impact on herd immunity for measles. We find a 25.6% to 73.6% drop in Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) uptake rates, 0.4 - 10.3% drop for Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis-inactivated Polio-Haemophilus influenza (5-in-1), and 8.0-67.8% drop for Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) across all 3 sites. Consequent herd immunity reduces to 74-84% among 12-month- to 2-year-olds, well below the 95% coverage that is protective for measles. This puts the whole community at risk for a measles epidemic. Public health efforts are urgently needed to maintain efficacious coverage for routine childhood vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic.